AUstralian consumers and businesses are reducing their debts for the first time since the last recession, but questions are being raised about whether it is voluntary or enforced by lenders imposing stricter conditions.
Figures collected by the Reserve Bank show the amount of credit outstanding to businesses and consumers fell 0.3per cent in December to just over $1.9trillion - the first monthly fall since 1992 - slowing what was expected to be a steady rise to $2trillion. Outstanding debt has roughly doubled in the past six years.
Corporations are leading the retreat, with demand for finance for new projects drying up and lenders become more cautious about who they lend to. Outstanding loans to business shrank 1.1 per cent in December, reducing the annual growth rate to 8 per cent, down from 24per cent the year before. The Reserve Bank said some of the decrease "reflected a fall in foreign currency-denominated lending".
Other figures released yesterday by the banking watchdog, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, and analysed by CommSec showed banks with foreign parent companies such as HSBC, Barclays and ING reduced loans and advances to Australian firms and households in December. All of the big Australian banks, excluding NAB, increased theirs.
The chief economist at Morgan Stanley, Gerard Minack, said the figures showed the credit crunch was beginning to be felt domestically. "More to the point, it will likely get significantly worse. Reduced credit flows is part of the reason I expect a severe recession in Australia.
In particular, tight credit points to a major fall in business investment over the next 18 months."
The credit figures are another sign of a slowing economy, which is expected to convince the Reserve to opt for a 1percentage point interest rate cut at its first meeting of the year next Tuesday.
Meanwhile, housing debt - which accounts for nearly half of all outstanding debt, or nearly $1trillion - continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace than a year ago. The annual growth rate of 7.6per cent was the slowest recorded in more than 25 years.
It shows that while lower interest rates and the first-home-buyers' grant boost may be supporting demand, existing borrowers are seeking to repay debts at a faster rate.
A Commonwealth Bank economist said it was a bad sign for house prices. "This much lower volume of funds trickling into the housing market means that sales volumes will remain anaemic."
