Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Analysts say any interest rate rise would stifle a much-needed recovery in housing investment

All eyes will be on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the September quarter.
Any inflation spike could force the Reserve Bank of Australia's hand when the Board meets on Melbourne Cup day.
Meanwhile, the housing shortage brought on by a surge in migration is being cited as a major contributor to the official inflation result.
Economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel says any interest rate rise would stifle a much-needed recovery in housing investment.
BIS Shrapnel economist Jason Anderson says clearly not enough is being produced in terms of the rate of dwelling construction.
"There is a need now to articulate how governments are going to respond to an environment really which has changed very quickly in terms of that overseas migration and the population gain," he said.
"But it's now becoming much more important in terms of the outlook for inflation and we can't set aside yet as the temporary phenomenon.
"This is an issue that will be with us into the next couple of years at least."
Rental shortage
He says the rental shortage will continue to attract a lot more attention in the determination of the inflation number for some time.
"The real problem then is that any policy action to remedy or try and address the imbalance between supply and demand, will take quite sometime to come through, and in the meantime, there will certainly be an acceleration in rentals," he said.
"With that in mind, it's a difficult balancing act, I think, for the Reserve Bank, because it's contributing to acceleration in consumer prices, but on the other hand, any policy action will probably dampen still, the rate of dwelling construction and that of course then has feedbacks in terms of extending the imbalance between supply and demand."
He says depending on Wednesday's CPI result, the Reserve Bank decision is going to be very evenly balanced.
"I think there is a need to look at, obviously, the wider context in terms of consumer spending," he said.
"We have seen a reacceleration in terms of how spending growth.
"The housing market conditions, with the exception of Sydney, seem to have had life, new life breathed into them over the last six months and that would indicate that the impact of the rate rises that we had last year, obviously the evidence is yet to come through in terms of the August rise, have not been that substantial.
"So also when you add to that, the fact that the employment growth figures remain solid means that it's going to be quite a difficult decision."