Australian Mortgages: Happened in 2011?

Australian Mortgages in 2011 from the rear view mirror

The fact that Australian mortgage delinquencies have declined in the third quarter in Australia points to the fact that the worst of mortgage stress may be over.

The return of the saver, and the virtue of saving

This year has seen more Australian households reining in their expenditures, and the biggest fatality of all this is the credit card. Australians seem to be shunning credit card debt like the plague as well as mortgage debt. This year has been credit card debt reduction as the biggest shift to saving has occurred.
That has to be a good thing for everyone, except retailers who have been milking Australians with over priced goods for generations.

The rise and rise of online sales

This year we have seen online sales surge to the point of critical mass, as Australians are starting buy online in a big way, and that has to mean better retail pricing and services in 2012. Even grumpy old Gerry Harvey has capitulated, and has online offers. [Not convinced Gerry, Sorry] If you want to buy superceded stock at new retail prices, shop Harvey Norman is may motto. His ads can shout at me all they like. I have only ever bought duds from Gerry. THat's why I never shop there anymore. But there is a suckerborn every minute, right Gerry?

The 2011 Christmas shopping season

This is one reason I feel that Christmas is going to be challenging for retail. Spending money you are yet to earn is becoming very unwise to savvy Australian shoppers, and those waiting for the Christmas sales to spend their holiday wages are being tempted with ever more attractive pre Christmas sales. And our high dollar means overseas spenders are less likely to come, and have less money to spend if they get here. At the same time cashed up Aussies are flying out and spending on holidays and spending their money overseas. But Australians know that the family home is more important than tinsel and glitter, and so only people with cash in hand seem to be shopping these days.

The banks are a multi-channel money machine

The banks however are doing OK, despite the loss of credit card revenues, and that is due to business loans growing to replace the shrinkage in credit card debt and home mortgage loans applications, which continue to fall away.
So mortgage delinquencies may have fallen, which is good for the banks, but that does not mean that new people want to be roped into 30 years of debt, so we are seeing a fall in housing prices in all capital cities, as interest rates fall and wages rise.

Did Real Estate become a Ponzi Scheme? I think so.

The combination of rising wages, full employment, lowering mortgage rates and falling house prices tells me that Australians have learnt the lesson from the US finance collapse. That Real estate prices can and do get ahead of themselves and must eventually collapse when they grow out of kilter with the wages and supply.
In this respect I feel that real estate price growth has been a massive Ponzi scheme, and that has deflated slowly in Australia, unlike what has occured in the US, the UK and Europe where house prices are down for possibbly a generation.
Suddenly a house is not an investment anymore, it is a way of securing your accommodation for the long haul. Isn't that what a home should be about?
So what will happen to Australia's 1.7 million residential home investors who lose more on their investment every year in the hope of seeing capital gains? Well they are the victims of their own folly. As tax rates have fallen, the attractiveness of these negative gearing schemes was only shored up by one off growth spurt on the early 2000's, and that was on the back of sales pitches historical housing figures that will not be repeated. So all this fluff and puff is behind us.Like all ponzi schemes, the ones holding the baby when the music stops carries the lose, as those out early get to spend their money. What a beautifu swindle! It's not legislation as a crime! So the perpetrators get out scott free.

What's ahead for Mortgages in 2012?

Whats ahead? A flat house market and steady house prices. Maybe a little more price easing. Hopefully a big fall in land prices that is the real problem in home prices.[Ever wonder why the biggest donations to political parties were from Property Developers? Hmmmm.]
Expect to see house price inflation in country areas where the mining boom is happening. Other areas will see falls in house prices I predict. Its already happening in residential land prices in the towns across Australia. If I were buying a home in a country town, I would want a 10 year mortgage with comfortable repayments. Otherwise renting would be my option. A thirty year mortgage only makes sense in the capital cities of Australia today, because are economy and our society is so dynamic, and mobile. You can't shift real estate.

Australia: Experts in Digging Holes and turning dirt into Gold

The great thing about Australia is that most of it is lousy for growing things, but the soil is rich in minerals. So we have become more into digging holes and shipping the dirt off for Gold. Not a bad earner.

What we have also become is the beacon for climate change and hopefully we can transform this into an energy creation earner. More renewal energy means less imports of oil, and less pollution. Can we export energy so produced, or at least the kit to make it happen. I hope so. My Crystal ball is telling me is that energy, clean air, clean water and food will all be at a premium in the years ahead. We should position the Nation for this inevitable future World.

The cost of money will rise in 2012

The banks are trying to warn people, but the Government is pretending not to listen. The Euro crisis, and in particular, the fact that the UK does not want to touch their baby [smart brave move], will mean that France's banks is caught holding that particular baby, so expect to hear the music stop anytime soon. Once that happens we will have a credit crunch, lower RBA cash rates, not all passed on by the banks because the cost of their borrowing will zoom up.

2012? A good time to be a Saver. A good time to be in Australia. Have a good one!

Source: Rick Adlam, Mr Mortgage [reprinted by permission]

Which Way for Mortgage Rates as Homeowners feel Mortgage Stress

Mortgage stress and loan repayment arrears are becoming a growing reality for Australian Homeowners in New South Wales, Victoria & Queensland.

A growing number of mortgaged homeowners are feeling the pinch and mortgage payment arrears are rising to 2 percent in some areas of Australia. Whilst this is still tiny compared to what has happened in the US, it should be a red flag to the RBA when considering any further rate rises. In fact some are now believing that the next interest rate move could be lower.

What percentage of income creates mortgage stress?

All I know is that the old standard when we had many single income families in Australia, in the 1960's to the1970's that it was hard to get a mortgage without 20% deposit, and that 30% of your gross income on your mortgage was the limit you could go for.
This had the effect of suppressing real estate values.

And don't forget that income tax was at higher rates than it is today, so meant the average family was always squeezed. The other thing that happened in that era was constant wage increases and that soon made mortgages easier to cope with. That is just not part of the landscape these days. Successive Governments have opted for tax cuts as a way of moderating inflation and improving cash-flows on a household level.
So wage increases are few and far between in this period, and much more gradual than in those days. The result is that people who swallowed more they can chew today, have to put up with many years of indigestion in what we call mortgage stress.Its not something that we get into and inflation takes us away from anymore. Its around a lot longer.

The other big change is real estate value increases. In the sixties and seventies we saw a lot of home value appreciation, but for the passed four years we have seen little by way of property price rises, and some areas we have seen house prices fall recently, and it can make the pain of mortgage stress a lot harder to cope with. When property values slide backwards, it can give you that sinking feeling, especially if you find yourself underwater, meaning that the debt is larger than the equity of the property.

The Reserve Bank of Australia Moves interest rates in Mysterious ways.

My view is that the RBA rate rise in November was one rate rise too many, and many on the RBA are beginning to see that this was the case. That's we are getting interest rate rise talk, without the action.

Will we see a rate rise or a rate drop next time?

Earlier in the year my bank manager asked me if I wanted to re-fix my mortgage as it came out of a very attractive fixed rate. They thought they were doing me a favour. I told them no, because I could not see how a rate rise was possible. Well, my variable rate is still under where the fixed rate would have been set, and variable rates could go lower. Now some brave traders are betting on the next move in interest rates to be lower down in Australia. More about that below.

The reasons Lower Interest rates may happen

There were plenty of reasons for this, and they all have resurfaced now because they never went away. They are weak house prices and housing demand, slow wage growth, low retail spending, a shift to saving over spending that is seeing savings rise. Also the Euro debt crisis is yet to be behind us, and the US could double dip into another recession.

Currencies traders are starting to bet that Interest rates will fall in Australia.

Most economists say that one or two rate rise are possible later in the year. But some currency traders are now betting that the next rate movement by the RBA will be down, not up.
So any homeowner trying to sell a home right now, any home buyer looking at buying a home soon, and any real estate agent or mortgage broker wanting more business would be praying that a rate drop will come to pass.

What will happen to homeowners if mortgage rates don't fall?

If interest rates don't go lower, but rise instead, borrowers with only average-size mortgages in Sydney and Melbourne will be on the verge of ''mortgage stress''. And homeowners with mortgages that are bigger than average could be in for a lean ride. The experts say that a household is under mortgage stress once home loan repayments take up more than 30 per cent of gross income, according to some. But they are talking about two income families. It would make more sense for people know what their maximum mortgage repayments should be as a percentage of their net incomes.

Part of the problem here, is how much other debt are these people carrying, and how they are affected with other price increases. That includes petrol, electricity, gas and food. All are rising way faster than inflation and that has to be making it harder for all home buyers and mortgage holders to cope with mortgage payments.

Source: Mr Mortgage

Mortgage repayments: Why NSW has nearly half of Australia's home loan battlers

According to a Moody's latest investment report, New South Wales has 44 per cent of Australia's entire home loan delinquencies, and mortgagors in Sydney's fringe suburbs are most likely to lose their homes through mortgage stress.

Most of those are in Sydney's outer regions where more about 2.5 per cent of mortgages are more than 30 days behind in repayments, a Moody's Investors Service report said.

Australia's mortgage market is generally performing well, but not as well as four years ago

Australia's mortgage market has always performed well, with just a National figure of about 1.3 percent of mortgages in default due to slow mortgage repayments.
This figure is about ten times better than the US experience over the past two years, but is not as good as it was four years ago.

So why is Sydney having suburbs with double the National average?

1.  Overvalued house prices. Show me struggling homeowners and I'll show you overvalued homes. Many home buyers have paid too much for their homes and will suffer the most.
2. Commuting expenses. When you are in the outer suburbs you will be travelling longer to get to work, and that means high transport, car and petrol expenses, so you have less to spend on your mortgage. Rising petrol prices have not helped.
3. Starting families too early. Having kids is expensive and it means that many partners choose to stay home to care for their children. Starting a family may have been unplanned or seemed affordable two years a go with record low interest rates and the baby bonus. But the baby bonus doesn't go far and the the mortgage keeps rising. You cannot make mortgage repayment and feed a family on one income these days, so both partners need to be income earners.

The RBA tipped to raise interest rates

The troubles may be in front of those now struggling to meet mortgage commitments as the RBA is widely tipped to raise mortgage interest rates by up to 1.25% over the next twelve months and the Major banks looking to raise rates over this figure.
Softening house prices in these suburbs will not assist mortgage stressed homeowners to sell their way out of debt, so people behind in mortgage repayments will have to learn to tighten their belts over the next few years.

Mr Mortgage Advice. If you are struggling with mortgage repayments now, I suggest that you switch to a non bank mortgage lender with lower mortgage interest rates, and maybe a discounted one year mortgage rate to help you through the next twelve months. The major banks want to raise rates in addition to any Reserve Bank rate increases, so your need to out of that scenario now.

Massive market opens for mortagge brokers to ease the pain.

over half the recipients of a recent survet said they were hurting under mortagge stress. The recent mortgage rate reductions would have eased this a little, but this shows how much mortgage brokers who can assist these homeowners are needed right now.
Clients are particularly looking for ways to reduce monthly finance costs and give them some kind of buffer should they need it in the uncertain times ahead.
More than half of the respondents admitted that their mortgage repayments were more than 30 per cent of their gross household income. This used to be the acid test for the maxium borrowing capacity, but these have been stretched to dangerously high levels in the past four years as competition with the banks against mortgage brokers hotted up.
And half of those were feeling mortgage stress. That's about 25% of the total mortgage borrowers.
The Problem is house prices
In the last decade, house prices in Australia had risen to almost nine times the average income. This is from 3 times the average income 40 years ago.
This had left borrowers at significant risk when interest rates rose sharply and house prices remained constant or fell.
The risk could be mitigated by the greater availability of land supply, the use of employment continuation insurance, shared equity mortgages or salary-adjusted mortgages.
But that is for new home buyers.
Mortgage brokers would do better focusing on the needs that already exist. The mortgage stressed homeowner.

Helensvale, Gold Coast tops the mortgage stress list

Hevensvale, on the Gold Coast, has been named as the most mortgage-stressed suburb in Australia by the global ratings agency Fitch Ratings.
The Gold Coast and Sydney's Vaucluse have joined southwestern Sydney as the areas suffering the most from mortgage stress and loan defaults.
More than 840,000 residential mortgages - valued at $140 billion - were outstanding at the end of September, with interest rate rises in late 2007 and 2008 to blame.
Australian mortgage delinquency rose in the six months between April and September this year, Fitch Ratings said.
Southwestern and western Sydney remain the nation's mortgage stress hotspots, but there have been significant changes in the suburbs of Perth, southeast Queensland and New South Wales regional areas, such as Wollongong, Newcastle and the Central Coast.
One of the nation's most affluent addresses - Vaucluse - is rated seventh worst by loan value.
The top 10 suburbs and towns listed as suffering the most mortgage stress are: Helensvale (Queensland), Nelson Bay (NSW), Raymond Terrace (NSW), Katoomba (NSW), Greenacre (NSW), Guildford (NSW), Vaucluse (NSW), Fairfield (NSW), Cessnock (NSW) and St Marys (NSW).
Mortgage performance is expected to continue to deteriorate on the back of the Christmas spending season and the rapidly slowing economy, Fitch says.
"On a national basis, Australian mortgages, by value, that missed one or more payments, increased to 2.13 per cent from 1.88 per cent," said Ben McCarthy, from Structured Finance, who authored the Fitch report.
However a finding in the report suggests loans made between 2002 and 2007 are easier to service today than when the loan was first taken out.
"From this point of view if unemployment can remain subdued the Australian mortgage market will continue to perform well," Mr McCarthy said.