Australia's Housing Shortage: Is it just an urban myth?

I have been accepting as "fact" for 8 years that Australia has a housing shortage. But what if that was not the case. Would you still buy a home? Is that the question?
Investment Banker Mortgage Stanley recently released research that pointed to Australia actually having a glut of housing, rather than the much touted housing shortage we have all heard about that keeps growing like an evil magic pudding.
Admittedly, I have heard about this housing shortage since 2003 and wondered where all the tent cities were being erected in Australia to justify these claims.
Maybe we will see fake one's sprouting up all over Australia soon?

Housing Shortage, Fact or Myth:Australia goes from an estimated 228,000 housing shortfall to a 341,000 home glut in the time it takes to produce a report!

So how did we get this 569,000 housing turnaround in weeks?

There has to be a reason that house prices have not collapsed in the wake of the GFC.

The estimated 228,000-home shortfall, cited by everyone from the construction industry to economists at the major banks as evidence for why prices remain so high, may, in fact, be an excess of 341,000 homes, according to Morgan Stanley.

Whether the new figures are accurate will only become clear in time, as house prices either level off because real estate is scarce, or prices fall and attract more scrutiny about the fundamentals of the market.
But what if there are other reasons why home prices are staying high in the gloom. Here's a few.

1. Real estate is worth what someone else will pay you for it. People have not been willing to pay what many buyers want, but...
2. Real estate is also worth what you are prepared to let it go for if you are selling. When people have not been able to sell at the price they want or even need, they are hanging on to it.
3. If you have a job you can afford the mortgage till things come good. In Australia's case the job market never went bad, so people can hang onto property for longer.
4. If you hang onto to the old property, then real estate agents are not going to be happy, because you don't effect your sale, and you therefore can't buy the next home. This is exactly what is happening.
5. People are now hanging on to their homes longer and their mortgages longer.
6. From a generational point of view, people are living longer and staying in their homes for longer. And the Government assists this with carers and other services to help people stay out of nursing homes longer.

But the all-important nature of house price movements underscores a bigger issue: we simply don't know what impact elevated property prices have on other aspects of the economy because we don't have a long history of clean, robust and comparable data to rely on.
But I will give it a try here.

1. When you pay too much for a home, you have to hang onto it for longer or risk going underwater.
2. When you pay too much, your mortgage is bigger than it should be. That makes banks happy and rich and that means that you pay more of your income in mortgage repayments than you should be, for the next 30 years. That causes a thing called mortgage stress. As these things have happened then we can say people have paid too much for their homes in the recent past.
3. Are they still paying too much? That will be clear in 2 years time. If prices go down, then yes they are still paying too much today.

In Australia, there is no clear, undisputed authority of information in this area crucial to the economy.

In the US, the S and P Case-Schiller index, which measures changes in prices of the same properties over time, and that is only 25 years old. So where do investment gurus pull 100 year figures from?
The problem I have with any long range figures is that they only rate the homes that are still standing,and over 100 years maybe more than half the housing stock may be demolished. SO counting just the best ones that are left is a hardly a way to determine the appreciation of housing generally. Its taking a generalisation and making it specific. But what about the home that was bought, and later demolished. Surely its worthless. When these homes are included in the overall picture, actual returns are lower.

In Australia, Residex's repeat sales index goes back to 1991, in the middle of a Sydney house price correction on 17% pa interest rates just before the two-decade run-up in house prices began.

One thing for certain is that it is unwise to expect the "boom conditions" to persist indefinitely. That is a interesting term. I thought the boom finished in 2003 and we got ripples in 2006, and last hurrah in 2010?

In 2010, Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens appeared on breakfast TV to warn viewers it was a mistake to ''assume a riskless, easy, and guaranteed way to prosperity is just to leverage property''.
That advise I was giving out from 2005, but nobody wanted to listen back then. That's why home prices went too high. Are they still too high. Well RBA Governor Stevens says no, they are not.

Source; Mr Mortgage

Mortgage home loans interest rates head north

Home mortgage rates could soon be 8%pa if the RBA believes the economy is stable and banks don't get sorted by legislation and greater competition.
With Australia missing the Global Financial Crisis boat and the economy powering ahead first home buyers and home owners could soon face mortgage home loan rates around the 8%.
This scenario will depend on a number of factors including:

• Mortgage home loan competition. Unless we see a vigorous embracing of securitised mortgage  lenders by both mortgage brokers and home buyers and homeowners, the banks with creep up their margins on the official cash rate. Major banks margins are nearly 3%, and that is over 1% on what is was three years ago at the height of a competitive non bank lending industry. 
• Legislation. Senator Bob Brown, leader of the Greens Party has introduced a bill that looks to cut mortgage interest rates and fees and charges on all lending other credit products to fair levels. Will the banks will be lobbying hard to stop this as this will white ant their mortgage home loan record profits.
• The RBA decisions over the next twelve months. The Reserve bank of Australia is the body that will steer Australia into a low inflation, low unemployment economic future. Balancing home loan affordability with consumer spending and business demand is a hard task, given that one of Australia's biggest challenges is the housing shortage that is driving home prices, and the size of the average home loan ever higher. 
• Government housing policy. Basically we don't have the policies to drive the home building industry to address our current housing shortage. The fundamental problem is that developed land is too expensive and in too short supply and takes too long to be approved by State and Local Governments. A Government policy at State or Federal levels to acquire and develop land for residential land has to be a priority. This will take the heat out of established home prices and make homes more affordable.
• Marketing tactics by developers. Even when land was plentiful, land developers used unfair tactics in my view with the aim to push prices higher by "creating artificial scarcity". This practice needs to be stopped, and more competition in the land development brought about.

By addressing these issues, housing will be less expensive, even if mortgage home loan interest rates go higher.

And by addressing the root cause of house prices going higher, by building more housing stock sooner, one of the main reasons for RBA interest rate rises, home price increases, will be removed, according to Rick Adlam, Mr Mortgage home loans.