Japanese Banks Target Australian Home Loan markets

Mega Japanese Banks are preparing to launch a surprise attack on the mortgage profit margins of Australia's big four banks. Why this sneaky raid will succeed

The big four banks, CBA, NAB, Westpac and ANZ are the envy of the banking world. Meanwhile Japanese banks have been in operating successfully in a recession economy for twenty years. In fact the interest rates they operate on are puny compared to Australian Home loan interest rates and bank margins. So its natural that they want a piece of the action.

Some say that Japanese banks could get a $100 billion of the Australian home loan market in double quick time. I agree.
At the coming February RBA board meeting most financial analysts are punting on a further rate cut to the official cash rate. That normally translates to a similar reduction in mortgage interest rates. However some of the big four banks are hinting at not passing on all of the rate difference, citing rising funding costs as the reason.
A cynic might suggest that the real reason is maintaining profit levels in a shrinking home loan & credit card finance by Australians.

Japanese banks are all cashed up with nowhere to lend

Japanese lenders are brimming with low cost cash because of the recession, and the Japanese savings ethic.
Australian banks on the other hand also pay puny interest rates, but lend that money out at fat profit margins.

Australia's trillion dollar mortgage pie. How big a slice can the Japanese hope to get?

Australia's trillion dollar home loan market looks ripe for the picking.
Snaring just a 10% slice of Australia's Mortgage pie would give the Japanese Banks a $100 billion dollar windfall.

A Japanese Bank raid a cakewalk for four good reasons.

1. Australians have no loyalty to their banks. Aussies love to hate banks. But they don't love them that much.
2. Australian home owners and home buyers will change lenders, and they do so often.
3. Money talks. Australian home buyers and homeowners are hurting financially, mainly because they paid too much for property on the basis of low interest rates, high loan to value ratios on loans and other lax lending practices.
4. Ready-made sales channels. Single unit and franchise mortgage brokers have established channels that the Japanese raiders can tap into instantly.
5. Japanese banks could also operate an online Australian mortgage channel, as this is how a lot of Australians looking to refinance do their research these days.

2012 may prove to be a tough year for mortgage lenders in Australia, and that means a better deal for Aussie home loan borrowers.

That has to be good news for the real estate industry and the home building sector, who have both had a rough 2011.

Summary

The impending Japanese Bank home loan invasion may be the tonic Australia needs to reinvigorate real competition in home loans, the mortgage broker sector, the new home building industry and the housing market, and put a creator in Australia's big four profits at the same time. So are Australian home loans turning Japanese? Yes I think so.

Bank Mortgage Wars: Australia's Big Four Banks slug it out in the home loan space

Bank Mortgage Wars: Big four slug it out
NAB fired the first shot with the "break up" letter.
The National Australia Bank [NAB] has the least to lose and the most to gain in the home loan sector, so this made a lot of sense for them.
NAB has the smallest home loan portfolio, and the CBA and Westpac home loan customers looked ripe for the plunder. Have a go yer mug!


Westpac and CBA want to retaliate. 
NAB's business portfolio is their crown jewels. Hit em where it hurts most they must have thought.
This is competition. Wayne Swan and the ACCC would be pleased.
Westpac in the meantime are retelling the "banana smoothy story" to anyone who will listen [mostly the morons that are paying over the top mortgage interest rates, because they are a sucker for Nanna Gail's tales.]

What about the money? The fly in the ointment
The investment community are not happy. Better deals for customers mean lower profits, and that means falling share prices and lower dividends. But no customers means lower profits ,and being left standing in the NAB's drag race challenge means that the NAB would start to gain some badly needed traction in the home loan business at their expense. So doing nothing is not an option.


That brings up a question, So just who are the banks working for then.
The Government, the customers, or the investors [who actually own the business] That includes the fund managers who buy their stocks as part of their investment products, and low profits for banks mean a lower performing investment.
Well all three if the truth be told. That's if we don't include the managers and board.
Who has the biggest clout in the major banks?
Well today it looks like the shareholders and fund managers. The NAB challenge will put pressure on profit margins and that means earnings slides. it might even give them some good press in the eyes of borrowers. OK. So the NAB wins then? Not if Westpac and the Commonwealth Bank [CBA] have anything to do with it.
And the money side of town are worried that real competition between the big four banks is going to fierce, and lower earnings, profits and dividends would be the bitter harvest. Market share is the name of the game for the Big Banks. CBA and Westpac have it, and NAB wants to take it off them.

The drag race challenge. NAB v Westpac and CBA
National Australia Bank dropped a bombshell last month with the offer to pay the mortgage exit fees incurred by Westpac and CBA customers. Switching was in the news, and that is always a good place to begin a marketing campaign. [In the classic drag race manoeuvre, the under dog picks a fight with the top dog.]

Retaliation from Westpac was swift.
Westpac [and the CBA] have discount loans to new customers on offer. That's what NAB are already doing and it got them nowhere. And what about Westpac and CBA's existing home loan customers, locked into high interest rates? Too bad, if they are too dumb to give a crap and move thinks Westpac.

The CBA retaliation move: Relax the Lending Criteria. Easy money? 
I thought that is what caused the GFC?
CBA revealed it had relaxed some of its lending criteria, in an effort to suck all the new mortgage business to its doors. [Bad move I say]. Swap good mortgage customers at premium rates for "iffy" clients at discounted rates? [CBA is getting mad, or is that going mad?]
The other problem is that there are few new customers, New home sales are down, home prices are lower and buyers are thin on the ground, and maybe waiting for further price erosion?


Governments and Customers rejoice in real competition.
These small bit exchanges have been welcomed by consumers and the government as a sign of real competition for a change.
But will the campaign run out of steam, or this all a show for the audience ; look we have real competition and we don't need all this new regulation stuff that Wayne Swan is planning.


Investors are not impressed
With the big four banks, our "money for jam" banks are one of the most profitable sectors of the Australian market right now. The big four banks alone are aiming for a combined earnings over $20 billion in 2011.


Money ain't cheap these days.
Funding costs are tipped to rise and lending over the next three years is forecast to slow, so profits falls were likely anyway.


Will the Fifth Pillar "do doughnuts" around the big four banks?
If the so called fifth pillar, the regional banks and building societies and credit unions get better funding arrangements, then its going to be really tight for the big banks to maintain their profitability, unless they do as the ANZ and start to look for opportunities in new markets overseas.

Mr Mortgage forecasts lower home loan demand over the next three years, better deals from non bank mortgage lenders and credit unions and raised status of mortgage managers in the coming months as the real competition in the mortgage space. The NAB verses CBA and Westpac drag race is just the show opener for things to come. If you are looking to switch loans away from CBA or Westpac, wait till the new rules are in place in July.
For new mortgage loans look at credit unions, and building societies and non bank home loans for lo doc lending.

Mortgages. Why people are dissatisfied with the banks, and why the banks don't care..

Mortgage rates may rise above any official cash rate increase, according to many banks. The Government does like it, customers don't like, but the banks don't care. They have us "by the short and curly's."

You may have read the recent report by Choice that the big banks in Australia are on the nose with their customers.

People like the fact that we have a stable banking and financial system, and that their banks have been the rock in the global financial crisis.

But I guess its something that Australians expect from their banks.

The thing that gets under our skin is that Australia's Banks are the most profitable in the World, and while we can't deny they are well run, the real reason for this is the lack of mortgage competition that Banks face in Australia.

And that will lead to the banks taking their customers for granted. And in my opinion they do just that.

The fees and charges that they have been charging us for the last ten years or so, have in fact been in my view unlawful.

But we have let them get away with it, so they get on adding them.

Building societies and credit unions on the other hand are well liked by their customers.

They treat their customers as if they owned the business, and they do. Once you have an account with a building society or credit union, you become a joint owner of that organisation.

Banks do have mission statements that make their customers 'stakeholders'. This however is often meaningless when the share prices take a hit, and the the top officers of the banks get rewarded when share prices rise. And the easiest way to do that is to make more profit on every customer.

What we need to do is to tell the banks when we are not happy, and if you are not heard, then to move your account.

More competition in the Mortgage space is required.

The Treasurer Wayne Swan has been sniping at the banks about mortgage rates, and trying to hold them to official rate rises only.

But customers making a stand and competition are the key to lower mortgage rates.

You probably didn't notice, but Australia's mortgage brokers and securitised mortgage lenders have become largely irrelevant leading up to, and during the Global Financial Crisis. They just couldn't rise the funding to remain competitive with the banks.

Wayne Swan is trying to support the securitised mortgage lenders and has just pledged a further $8 billion dollars for mortgage funding. But that is just a drop in the bucket.

We need to understand that more is required.

Mortgage competition has collapsed in Australia

Mortgage brokers have gone from 40% share to 20% share of the mortgage market, and worse, mortgage originators have fallen from around 25% to just 2.5% of the mortgage business in recent times, and that is the issue.

There is no reason for banks to worry over the next two or three years. The competition has been vanquished and there is no one on the horizon to challenge them.

So what will you do about it? Get your bank to reduce your fees, move to a building society or credit union, get your loan refinanced by a mortgage originator, or just cop it sweet?

Australian Banks play hardball to remain profitable

Be in no doubt. Australia’s big four Banks will tough out any criticism from the Prime Minister and Treasurer down to keep their profits at record highs, financial crisis or no financial crisis.
The case in point is that mortgagor homeowners are suffering more than they should because in the last eight months, the Reserve Bank has cut official interest rates by 425 basis points and our banks have passed on only 385 basis points.
A stable and secure banking is important to support the Australian economy, jobs, business activity and investment, our banks need to ensure they remain well-run and profitable, even if that means making unpopular decisions, says Australian Bankers' Association chief executive David Bell.
But the reality is that the strong Australian economy has protected the banks from the World financial crisis, because mortgage borrowers have kept their jobs and not become bad debts on mass for the banks, which in turn would have crippled the banks as their security would not have matched their loans outstanding.
The banks seem to think they are the saviours here, and are increasing their margins at the expense of their customers, says Rick Adlam from Mr Mortgage. Independent economists and commentators agree that Australia is weathering the current global economic downturn better than any other advanced economy. What has that got to do with the Banks? They seem to want to take credit where credit isn't due.
The IMF is predicting a 1.4 per cent contraction for the Australian economy which compares very favourably with the US economy, which is expected to slide by 3 per cent, and Britain which is expected to contract by 4.1 per cent. Forecasters and commentators also agree that the stability and security of Australia's banking system has played an important part in our economy's resilience, but the banks seem to want to overplay this into a self backslapping exercise. They may have played some part, but they were not the core reason. In fact the Banks that have got into trouble were the one's who bought into valueless US mortgage derivatives, offloaded by wobbly US Banks! That's why we are not getting the full benefit of the official RBA rate cuts.
And it's not the only recent crisis in which Australia has fared well.Just a year ago there were around 20 AA-rated banks in the world. Today, there are just eight and Australia has four of them - not a bad result when our country is just 2 per cent of the world economy. Australian Banks need to continue to make sound commercial decisions to ensure the long-term stability of Australia's banking system, which is in the interests of customers, shareholders and the Australian economy. This is not aligned with increased profits that they are reporting.
They don’t need to be increasing their profit margins in a recession at the expense of their customer base and especially high debt carriers like mortgage borrowers, says Rick Adlam at Mr Mortgage. And their needs to be a level playing field for the small regional banks and non bank mortgage lenders.

Banks get cranky over Government rate reduction pass on demands

Australian banks are set for another showdown with the Rudd Government over future interest rate cuts, with NAB boss Cameron Clyne making clear this morning he was "relatively unlikely" to pass on the full amount of the next rate cut.
NAB economist Alan Oster is forecasting another 75 basis rate cut next month with another 50 basis points in the second half this year.
Clyne made clear his customers won't be getting that amount.
Other banks contacted this morning confided they agreed with Clyne, underlining the politics of the move earlier this week to pass on the full level of the 100 basis point cut on official interest rates.
The rate cut came on the day of the Government’s $42 billion handout and the day after CBA told the market it was growing income quickly thanks to better profit margins, so in the scheme of things it would not have looked good for the big banks to have played hard ball this week.
Next time it will be different.
Each bank has a different funding book depending on the level of deposits and the like, but NAB’s costs have gone up from 65 basis points over cash rates from July 2007 to January this year to 99 basis today and it is looking at that increasing to 99 basis points in the near future.
The reason being term funding costs are higher because while cash rates have fallen and the swap rate spread has also fallen, Government bond rates have not fallen as quickly, so as the banks replace short term paper with long term paper the funding costs increase.
That at least is how the big banks see the world.

Queensland banking and insurance giant Suncorp CEO quits

Banking, insurance and financial services big hitter Suncorp Metway was floored when chief executive John Mulcahy resigned, after the bank announced its interim after-tax profit to be between $250 million and $270 million after being hit with significantly higher bad debt charges.
Suncorp said its bad debt expenses for the half year to December 31, 2008, would rise to $355 million - "significantly above forecasts," it said - on specific provisions and write-offs.
Suncorp said its board would declare an interim dividend of 20 cents per share, fully franked, down from 52 cents per share for the previous corresponding period.
Interim profit before tax and items, including those related to the Promina acquisition, will be between $470 and $500 million, Suncorp said in a statement.
Mr Mulcahy has agreed to stay on while the company looks for a new chief executive.

Not happy bank! Australian banks earn $2 billion in fees and charges from their customers

The major Australian banks earned $2 billion more in fees and charges from their customers while hiking interest rates independently of the Reserve Bank.
New research published yesterday showed that in the year to June, the most recent figures available, banks accrued income from fees and commissions of $22.6 billion.
The result was well up on $20.48 billion they earned in the previous year and came as they were lifting, of their own accord, rates on mortgages, credit cards and personal loans.
The spate of rate hikes started in January when each major bank moved independently of the Reserve Bank, blaming the global financial crisis for increasing wholesale funding costs.
The round of rate hikes occurred on top of the Reserve Bank of Australia's two upward movements in official rates in February and March.
The figures published by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority did not show the impact of the 300 basis points in cuts ordered by the Reserve Bank in the past four months.
However, some of the banks have not passed on the full cuts to customers, with ANZ and Westpac keeping some of of the reduction from the 100-basis point cut by the RBA this month in their profit margins.
The level of account fees paid by Australian customers has reached a record high, with at least $1.4 billion spent in the June quarter on transaction and lending activity.
MWE Consulting analyst Mike Ebstein, an independent researcher, said the increase in fees came as customers placed more money with the major banks.
"The year end June total is up on the year end of June 2007," Mr Ebstein said.
"But the last quarter went against the annual trend and the 10.4 per cent growth in fees and commissions was well below the growth in assets and deposits."
Despite the increase in fees, Australians have turned into fiscal conservatives, choosing to hoard cash out of the volatile financial markets.
Before the recent interest rate cuts, banks were offering deposit rates above 8 per cent in a bid to reduce their reliance on volatile funding markets. However, as official rates have been cut, deposit rates have been slashed.

Aussie banks safe as houses

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd reassured Australians and said that Australia's retail banks were among the safest in the world.
The Opposition Liberal party has warned of the danger of bank runs in Australia which could destroy smaller banks and credit unions.

Mr Rudd said that the World Economic Forum had yesterday released a report rating Australia's banks the fourth most sound in the world in a ranking of 134 nations.
While the road ahead was rocky, Mr Rudd said the nation's economic fundamentals remained solid. "We have a strong budget surplus as a buffer for the future, and to be used to meet the challenges of the future," he said.

Mr Rudd has suggested his Government might move to protect up to $20,000, but Mr Turnbull said guarantees had to be provided for $100,000.

Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull said the Government must back bank deposits to assure individuals and small businesses that at least the first $100,000 of their savings was safe. Australia and New Zealand are the only OECD countries without a direct government-backed guarantee on bank deposits.

Mr Turnbull said the crisis had already sparked a shift towards the Big Four banks at the expense of smaller players.
"There is a real risk at present that depositors will shift their savings from smaller institutions such as regional banks and credit unions to the Big Four banks," he said. "This has the potential to considerably strengthen the big institutions' competitive position at the expense of their smaller rivals."

Mr Swan said that Australia's well regulated, well capitalised banking system would provide a bulwark from the fallout.

The silver lining from all of this is the increasing certainty that interest rates could fall by as much as 2 per cent more [to a cash rate of 4%pa] by mid next year.
This will be the sort of solution that mortgage payers want to see happen.