Monday, January 23, 2012

Japanese Banks Target Australian Home Loan markets

Mega Japanese Banks are preparing to launch a surprise attack on the mortgage profit margins of Australia's big four banks. Why this sneaky raid will succeed

The big four banks, CBA, NAB, Westpac and ANZ are the envy of the banking world. Meanwhile Japanese banks have been in operating successfully in a recession economy for twenty years. In fact the interest rates they operate on are puny compared to Australian Home loan interest rates and bank margins. So its natural that they want a piece of the action.
Some say that Japanese banks could get a $100 billion of the Australian home loan market in double quick time. I agree.
At the coming February RBA board meeting most financial analysts are punting on a further rate cut to the official cash rate. That normally translates to a similar reduction in mortgage interest rates. However some of the big four banks are hinting at not passing on all of the rate difference, citing rising funding costs as the reason.
A cynic might suggest that the real reason is maintaining profit levels in a shrinking home loan & credit card finance by Australians.

Japanese banks are all cashed up with nowhere to lend

Japanese lenders are brimming with low cost cash because of the recession, and the Japanese savings ethic.
Australian banks on the other hand also pay puny interest rates, but lend that money out at fat profit margins.

Australia's trillion dollar mortgage pie. How big a slice can the Japanese hope to get?

Australia's trillion dollar home loan market looks ripe for the picking.
Snaring just a 10% slice of Australia's Mortgage pie would give the Japanese Banks a $100 billion dollar windfall.

A Japanese Bank raid a cakewalk for four good reasons.

  1. Australians have no loyalty to their banks. Aussies love to hate banks. But they don't love them that much.
  2. Australian home owners and home buyers will change lenders, and they do so often.
  3. Money talks. Australian home buyers and homeowners are hurting financially, mainly because they paid too much for property on the basis of low interest rates, high loan to value ratios on loans and other lax lending practices.
  4. Ready-made sales channels. Single unit and franchise mortgage brokers have established channels that the Japanese raiders can tap into instantly.
  5. Japanese banks could also operate an online Australian mortgage channel, as this is how a lot of Australians looking to refinance do their research these days.
2012 may prove to be a tough year for mortgage lenders in Australia, and that means a better deal for Aussie home loan borrowers.
That has to be good news for the real estate industry and the home building sector, who have both had a rough 2011.

Summary

The impending Japanese Bank home loan invasion may be the tonic Australia needs to reinvigorate real competition in home loans, the mortgage broker sector, the new home building industry and the housing market, and put a creator in Australia's big four profits at the same time. So are Australian home loans turning Japanese? Yes I think so.